Working Papers

  • High-Frequency Location Data Shows That Race Affects the Likelihood of Being Stopped and Fined for Speeding
    with Pradhi Aggarwal, Alec Brandon, Ariel Goldszmidt, Justin Holz, John List, Ian Muir, and Gregory Sun

  • How to Prevent Traffic Accidents: Moral Hazard, Inattention, and Behavioral Data
    with Yizhou Jin

Undergraduate Honors Thesis

  • A Model of Countercyclical Macroprudential Policy
    [Paper, Code]

    Since the adoption of Basel III bank regulations, countercyclical capital requirements have risen in prominence as a macroprudential tool for mitigating systemic risk and promoting financial stability. In this paper, I develop a model with a social cost of debt, which is addressed by imposing a capital requirement on financial intermediaries that responds countercyclically to aggregate debt and output. I evaluate the economy’s responses to simulated financial crises and find that a countercyclical capital requirement reduces the volatility of macroeconomic variables, helping the economy recover after a shock. This smoothing effect can be explained by the degree of the requirement’s countercyclicality. In a welfare analysis, I find that a countercyclical capital requirement can lead to greater welfare gains than a debt tax. These results provide strong evidence in favor of the use of countercyclical capital requirements as a policy instrument.